The current El Niño is on track to become the strongest since modern records began in 1950, and federal forecasters say League City and the rest of Southeast Texas should prepare for a wetter, stormier winter.

NOAA's Climate Prediction Center reported that sea surface temperature anomalies exceeded 4.0 degrees Celsius — about 7.2 degrees Fahrenheit — in portions of the eastern equatorial Pacific, according to the agency's ENSO Diagnostic Discussion. The key Niño-3.4 index, which NOAA uses to gauge overall El Niño strength, reached 2.1 degrees Celsius above average.

The agency puts the chance of a historic event exceeding all previous El Niño episodes at 83% for the October-through-December period. A strong-to-very-strong El Niño is likely through at least March 2027, NOAA said.

That has direct consequences for League City's flood-prone bayou corridors.

What it means for Southeast Texas

NOAA's winter outlook, released Oct. 15, favors wetter-than-average conditions across the entire southern tier of the United States from December 2026 through February 2027. An elevated likelihood of above-normal precipitation covers the Central and Southern Plains, the Lower Mississippi Valley and the Southeast.

Ken Graham, director of NOAA's National Weather Service, said a very strong El Niño shifts the jet stream south and east. That, he said, "tilts the odds toward stormier weather across the South."

Graham also warned that heavy rain falling on dry ground carries its own danger. NOAA's outlook noted that too much precipitation on dry soil can fuel flash floods and mudslides.

That warning is relevant locally. The Houston Chronicle reported that Houston's Bush Intercontinental Airport, the region's official climate observation site, had recorded 37.7 inches of rain so far in 2026, about 7 inches below normal. U.S. Drought Monitor data released Nov. 5 showed severe drought affecting parts of Galveston, Brazoria and Chambers counties.

A quiet hurricane season, but winter is different

KPRC 2 meteorologist Anthony Yanez reported that the El Niño already suppressed the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season. Only one hurricane formed alongside nine tropical storms, according to Yanez. That is below the average of 14 named storms per season. The Weather Channel reported it was the fewest hurricanes on record since 1925.

El Niño creates strong upper-level wind shear over the Atlantic's main development region, making it harder for hurricanes to form, Yanez wrote. But the same ocean heat that quieted the tropics now strengthens the southern jet stream, bringing more cold fronts and storm systems to Texas and the Gulf Coast.

History offers a caution

A wetter winter is not guaranteed. The Houston Chronicle analyzed 24 El Niño fall seasons dating to 1951 and found that among eight with strong or very strong events, only half were followed by winters with above-normal rainfall in Houston. The average was pulled upward by the exceptionally wet winter of 1991-92. The dry fall of 1987, by contrast, gave way to a winter with below-normal rain.

NOAA's next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for Nov. 12. Residents in flood-prone areas can monitor conditions through the Climate Prediction Center at cpc.ncep.noaa.gov.