Federal forecasters say the 2026 El Niño could become the strongest since 1950, raising flood risk for League City and the Gulf Coast through early 2027.
NOAA's Climate Prediction Center reported Oct. 8 that there is an 83% chance of a strong-to-very-strong El Niño persisting through at least March 2027. The agency said the event could exceed the strength of every El Niño in its dataset, which dates back to 1950.
Josh Willis, project scientist for sea level missions at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, said satellite data shows the 2026 event closely resembles the powerful 1997-98 El Niño. Willis said in a NASA Earth Observatory analysis published Oct. 23 that the current event is "on track to be even bigger" than 1997.
That matters for League City. The city's 55 square miles sit within a web of flood-prone waterways, including Clear Creek, Benson Bayou, Geisler Bayou and Dickinson Bayou, according to the city's flood maps page.
NOAA's winter outlook, released Oct. 15, forecasts above-normal precipitation across the southern Plains from December through February. KHOU reported the biggest takeaway for Houston and Southeast Texas is the potential for a wetter winter, driven by a southward shift in the jet stream that steers more storm systems toward the Gulf Coast.
Ken Graham, director of NOAA's National Weather Service, warned that the extra rain carries its own danger. "While higher chances of rain and snow may bring relief to drought-afflicted areas, too much precipitation on dry soil can fuel destructive flash floods and mudslides," Graham said, as reported by the Houston Chronicle.
Texas A&M atmospheric sciences professor John Nielsen-Gammon told the Chronicle in August that the odds of Texas having a wetter-than-normal season from October through April were about 90%, with a 10% to 15% chance of breaking its rainfall record.
Still, uncertainty remains. Willis cautioned that each El Niño plays out differently despite surface similarities. "There's always a bit of a dice roll here," he said. "Just because this El Niño looks like 1997 doesn't mean it will be exactly the same."
No statement from League City's emergency management office or Galveston County's Office of Emergency Management addressing the 2026 El Niño or winter flood preparedness has appeared in public records as of publication. FEMA and its contractors are updating flood maps for Galveston County, with adoption expected next year, according to the city's website.
NOAA's next ENSO Diagnostic Discussion is set for Nov. 12, and the next winter outlook update is scheduled for Nov. 19.
